How we analyze a Tokyo listing
Every deal validation we deliver follows the same systematic structure. Below is exactly what happens, in what order, with what data, and what you receive at the end.
From listing URL to verdict, in 48 hours
You send us the Suumo, Homes, or AtHome URL. Forty-eight hours later, you receive a 15 to 20 page report with a clear recommendation. Here is what happens in between.
What we do
We ingest the listing URL and parse the structured fields: station, walk-time, layout (1R / 1K / 1DK / 1LDK / 2LDK / 3LDK / etc.), building year, floor, area, and asking price. We then run the listing against our station-level GRM benchmark using a matched-key methodology: same station, same layout family, same age window. The asking price is plotted on the percentile distribution of closed transactions for that exact key.
Why it matters
A 1LDK at Nakameguro is not comparable to a 1LDK at Adachi. Even within Nakameguro, a 1981-vintage building is not comparable to a 2015-vintage. Ward-level or city-level averages hide all the signal. Station-and-layout-and-age is the smallest cell where comparables are statistically valid in Tokyo.
What you receive
The asking GRM expressed against the station median for the layout-age key, with explicit P25 and P75 bands. A 144x GRM is excellent. 144 to 192x is solid. 192 to 240x is fair. 240 to 300x is expensive. Above 300x is a speculative premium.
What we do
We pull the active rental listings at the same station, in the same layout family, in the same age window, with similar area. Typically 5 to 15 comparables. We build a realistic rent range: the floor (what a slightly-older or higher-floor comparable rents at), the median (where the property should realistically clear), and the ceiling (what an unusually favorable lease might achieve).
Why it matters
The single most common source of disappointment in Tokyo is the seller's rent assumption. Listings routinely advertise gross yields based on a rent figure 10 to 20 percent above what the property will actually lease at. The asking yield is mechanical: rent assumption divided by asking price. Inflate the rent by 15 percent, the yield looks 15 percent better. The real cash flow is determined by the floor of the range, not the ceiling.
What you receive
The realistic rent range, the comparable listings we used to build it, and your yield recomputed against the floor. The delta between the seller's claimed yield and the conservative yield is often where the deal stops being attractive.
What we do
We check the building against four risk dimensions that typically do not appear on a listing portal. First, seismic code era: pre-1981 buildings carry an explicit risk and an explicit liquidity discount; post-1981 buildings cleared the major code revision; post-2000 buildings cleared the performance-based revision. Second, the repair reserve fund: if it sits well below the per-unit benchmark for buildings of that age, a special assessment within the next 3 to 5 years is likely. Third, walk time: the seller-stated walk time is often optimistic; we cross-check against route calculations. Fourth, station-level liquidity and demand: some stations have low transaction frequency, which affects exit price discovery.
Why it matters
These four factors are the dominant source of preventable loss in Tokyo. Pre-1981 buildings can lose 20 percent of their value on resale. A reserve fund gap of 70 to 80 percent against benchmark can produce a one-time special assessment of 1 to 3 million yen per unit. A 13-minute walk that the listing calls 10 minutes hits both rent and resale price. A low-liquidity station can extend the exit timeline by 6 to 12 months.
What you receive
A flag-by-flag breakdown: green (no concern), amber (worth pricing in), red (this needs explanation or this is a pass). Plus the documented basis for each flag, so you can take it back to the seller or the agent without ambiguity.
What we do
We consolidate the matched-key benchmark, the stress-tested rent, and the risk flags into one synthesis. The verdict is one of three options, never hedged: buy at the asking price, negotiate down to a stated fair price range, or pass with a clear reason. The fair price range is anchored to closed comparable transactions (not other asking prices) adjusted for the property's specific risk flags.
Why it matters
An ambiguous report is worse than no report. You should be able to forward the verdict to the seller's agent and use it as your negotiating anchor without further analysis. Every line in the verdict is documented in the body of the report.
What you receive
A 15 to 20 page PDF report with the full reasoning, plus a one-page summary you can use in a counter-offer. We are available for a 30-minute walkthrough call if you want to challenge any assumption before you act on the verdict.
Three types of investors we serve
Private investors
Individuals investing $100k to $2M in Tokyo residential. Often based abroad, often making their first Japan acquisition. We handle the intelligence gap and provide the confidence to move.
Family offices
Structured investors building Tokyo allocations systematically. We act as their on-the-ground research arm: deal sourcing, validation, and portfolio monitoring without headcount.
Global professionals
Finance, tech, and legal professionals relocating to or from Japan, or diversifying into a market they know and trust. Advisory available in English, French, and Japanese.
Have a listing you want validated?
Send us the URL. We will tell you whether it is worth your offer.