How Distance to Station Impacts Price per Square Meter — Backed by Data

By Tokyo Insights · Updated October 2025

In Tokyo, walking minutes dominate willingness-to-pay. Modeling this explicitly — rather than relying on ward averages — improves pricing accuracy and reduces underwriting error.

1) The Distance-Decay Model

β is station-specific and line-sensitive. It typically steepens beyond 8–10 minutes for 1K, and is flatter for 1LDK/2LDK with strong amenity support.

2) Practical Workflow

1. Collect station-tagged sold comps (size, vintage, walk minutes).
2. Winsorize tails by station and vintage; remove data errors.
3. Fit β and control for age and layout.
4. Compare live listings to fair-value curves; price risk accordingly.

3) What to Watch

• Breakpoints around 5, 8 and 12 minutes — often tied to line interchanges.
• Age-drag interaction (older stock more sensitive to distance beyond 10 minutes).
• Layout effects: liquidity vs. yield trade-offs.